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The Dollar’s Global Role and the Financing of the US External Deficit
There is too much talk about the dollar's role as a reserve currency, and too little talk about expectations of exceptional returns. Reserve accumulation hasn't driven the financing of the US current account deficit in recent years
Why Did China’s Current Account Surplus Surge in the Third Quarter?
An old school, “make blogging great again” style post. The rise in the current account surplus might be linked to the “carry” unwind in the third quarter.
The U.S. Income Balance Puzzle
The long-standing surplus in the U.S. investment income account, often cited as evidence of “exorbitant privilege,” is receding. It already goes away without the income from profit-shifting by U.S. multinationals.
The Surprising Resilience of Globalization: An Examination of Claims of Economic Fragmentation
In my new paper published by the Aspen Economic Strategy Group, I highlight the persistence of unhealthy globalization and lay out some proposals for a more sustainable regime.
The iPhone's Outsized Impact on Debates about China's Trade Data
China’s main explanation for the $300 billion plus gap between its customs surplus and its goods surplus in the balance of payments is the Apple iPhone.
Beijing Still Has Fiscal Space
China’s central government has plenty of capacity to implement a counter-cyclical fiscal approach in addressing its economic slowdown. Net central government debt is very, very low.
Chinese State Investors Do Not Seem to Profit From Higher U.S. Interest Rates
Given the size and composition of its external lending, China should be clearing far more interest income on its reserves and policy lending than SAFE reports.
The IMF’s Latest External Sector Report Misses the Mark
The IMF should take a mulligan on the 2024 External Sector Report. The imbalance in China’s goods trade is expanding, not receding. It is too big for the IMF to ignore.
China’s Imaginary Trade Data
China has a new way of calculating its good surplus in its formal balance of payments data. It is a deeply misleading. It also explains the apparent fall in the current account account surplus.
What to Do About the Liquidity Difficulties in Low-Income Countries
The IMF, while recognizing the liquidity challenges sure to be faced by several indebted countries in the coming years, needs to offer a solution that both widens its scope and deepens its analysis.
The Spotty International Tax Record of Big U.S. Technology Companies
Many big technology firms continue to book large offshore profits in low tax jurisdictions, particularly Ireland and Singapore.
