Political Tension in Côte d'Ivoire

In March of this year, The Economist magazine ran a story headlined “The Success of Ivory Coast is Africa’s Best-Kept Secret.” With over a decade of sustained growth rates above 6 percent per year, demonstrable progress in adding value to its raw materials before export, building its services sector, and attracting investment, Côte d’Ivoire’s successes deserve attention and celebration. But the growth story is not the whole story.

Last week, spurious coup rumors briefly flooded social media, forcing the government to deny their veracity. The fact that such political unrest seemed remotely plausible to many should give that same government pause. As the country approaches elections in October, its political ailments have come out of remission and threaten the health of the Ivorian project.

Current Ivorian President Alassane Ouattara is eighty-three years old and has been in power for over fourteen years. He and his team deserve accolades for the country’s positive economic trajectory. But having led Côte d’Ivoire’s recovery from civil war, Ouattara’s continued political dominance is flirting with a return to disaster. Lethal unrest accompanied the last election, when Ouattara ran for a third term using the justification that the adoption of a new constitution in 2016 reset the clock on his two-term limit. Since then, “constitutional coups” have regularly factored into conversations about waning faith in democratic governance and the recent flurry of coups d’état in the region.

Today, it seems entirely possible that Ouattara will seek a fourth term; his political party has yet to name another candidate. Civil society has called the independence of electoral authorities into question. Worse, prominent opposition figure Tidjane Thiam has been disqualified from contesting the election based on his citizenship status (Thiam was born in Côte d’Ivoire, acquired French citizenship in 1987, and surrendered French citizenship earlier this year in order to qualify for the electoral list). Thiam is the latest challenger among several to be disqualified from running for president by Ivorian courts. Ironically, Ouattara himself was twice barred from running for president due to concerns about his nationality and citizenship, and a politicized discourse around national identity, or “Ivoirité” helped to fuel the country’s second civil war. The toxicity of debates about who is Ivorian enough to lead should be obvious to all.

African history is littered with “indispensable” men whose certainty that they alone could hold their country together led to frustration and ultimately political violence. The country is also a prime example of why a narrow focus on commercial transactions can lead partners into perilous terrain. Deals are not struck in a vacuum and insulated from political realities. Côte d’Ivoire’s development gains are real, and its potential is significant, which is why the country has so much to lose if its political class repeats the mistakes of the past.