Katowice Climate Summit: What to Watch

In Brief

Katowice Climate Summit: What to Watch

The conference in Poland will be a major test of the world’s collective political will to fight global warming. Following through on promises made in Paris will not be easy.

The global summit in Katowice, Poland, early next month will be the most significant gathering on climate change since the adoption of the Paris Agreement in 2015. Delegates from 197 signatory countries will be under tremendous pressure to turn their governments’ pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions into verifiable actions. The proceedings—formally known as the Twenty-Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP24) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change—come just weeks after a startling UN report warned that the catastrophic effects of climate change are likely to hit much sooner than thought unless governments take extraordinary collective action.

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Here’s a quick rundown of what to watch for in Katowice.

Writing the Rule Book

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Energy and Climate Policy

Signatories will be looking to finalize the so-called Paris rule book, which will govern how countries implement the 2015 agreement, including reporting and accounting requirements, mechanisms to promote compliance, and the role of the Adaptation Fund, which was set up in 2001 to finance adaptation projects for developing-nation signatories of the Kyoto Protocol. To do so, delegates must pore through a three-hundred-page document that chronicles the status of negotiations.

Heading into the Katowice talks, few major industrialized nations are on track to fulfill their pledges to cut carbon emissions, according to climate researchers. This fact that does not bode well for the Paris accord’s ambition mechanism, whereby countries would make bolder commitments as 2020 approaches.

Closing the Funding Gap

Another major focus at the conference will be funding. To meet their ambitious goals to reduce emissions and adapt to localized climatic changes, developing countries will need substantial and sustained financing. Negotiators from the world’s least-developed countries met in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, in October and released a communiqué outlining the unprecedented dual challenge they have of trying to eradicate poverty and nurture low-carbon, climate-resilient economies.

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A man walks in front of the India Gate shrouded in smog in New Delhi, India, October 29, 2018.
A man walks in front of the India Gate shrouded in smog in New Delhi, India, October 29, 2018. Anushree Fadnavis/Reuters

Experts, as well as major states such as India, Brazil, China, and South Africa, have expressed concerns that developed countries are falling short of their promise to raise $100 billion a year, from both public and private sources, by 2020 to help developing countries address climate change. The world’s wealthiest industrial nations delivered about $55 billion in climate finance in 2016, with private capital contributions bringing the total to $70 billion. The Green Climate Fund, one of the prominent UN-sponsored mechanisms that finances decarbonization projects, has received pledges of $16.3 billion, of which $4.6 billion has been paid in. 

Moreover, negotiations are deadlocked on the subject of a post-2025 finance goal, beyond the yearly $100 billion commitment developed nations have already made.

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X Factor: The United States

Although President Donald J. Trump is pulling the United States from the Paris Agreement, the White House plans to send envoys to Katowice. Without U.S. leadership, it will be challenging for world powers to create a global framework for delivering adequate financing to fight climate change. Trump has said the United States will no longer pay into the Green Climate Fund, which has been widely criticized for mismanagement. The Obama administration paid in $1 billion of a $3 billion U.S. commitment to the fund.

But not all climate aid to developing nations must flow through this UN vehicle. In an effort to counter China’s geopolitical influence, the Trump administration recently created a new foreign aid agency to bankroll infrastructure projects in Africa, Asia, and the Americas. This agency could potentially help countries with climate resilience. At the same time, China could funnel money from its Belt and Road Initiative to help less-developed countries—although it has often backed construction of coal-fired power plants, which countermands UN efforts to help countries decarbonize.

One of the big challenges at Katowice will be to make these and similar kinds of infrastructure financing efforts more climate-friendly and try to move them inside the UN climate tent.

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At the Shangri-La dialogue in Singapore last week, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the United States would be expanding its defense partnership with India. His statement was in line with U.S. policy over the last two decades, which, irrespective of the party in power, has sought to cultivate India as a serious defense partner. The U.S.-India defense partnership has come a long way. Beginning in 2001, the United States and India moved from little defense cooperation or coordination to significant gestures that would lay the foundation of the robust defense partnership that exists today—such as India offering access to its facilities after 9/11 to help the United States launch operations in Afghanistan or the 123 Agreement in 2005 that paved the way for civil nuclear cooperation between the two countries. In the United States, there is bipartisan agreement that a strong defense partnership with India is vital for its Indo-Pacific strategy and containing China. In India, too, there is broad political support for its strategic partnership with the United States given its immense wariness about its fractious border relationship with China. Consequently, the U.S.-India bilateral relationship has heavily emphasized security, with even trade tilting toward defense goods. Despite the massive changes to the relationship in the last few years, and both countries’ desire to develop ever-closer defense ties, differences between the United States and India remain. A significant part of this has to do with the differing norms that underpin the defense interests of each country. The following Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) memos by defense experts in three countries are part of a larger CFR project assessing India’s approach to the international order in different areas, and illustrate India’s positions on important defense issues—military operationalization, cooperation in space, and export controls—and how they differ with respect to the United States and its allies. Sameer Lalwani (Washington, DC) argues that the two countries differ in their thinking about deterrence, and that this is evident in three categories crucial to defense: capability, geography, and interoperability. When it comes to increasing material capabilities, for example, India prioritizes domestic economic development, including developing indigenous capabilities (i.e., its domestic defense-industrial sector). With regard to geography, for example, the United States and its Western allies think of crises, such as Ukraine, in terms of global domino effects; India, in contrast, thinks regionally, and confines itself to the effects on its neighborhood and borders (and, as the recent crisis with Pakistan shows, India continues to face threats on its border, widening the geographic divergence with the United States). And India’s commitment to strategic autonomy means the two countries remain far apart on the kind of interoperability required by modern military operations. Yet there is also reason for optimism about the relationship as those differences are largely surmountable. Dimitrios Stroikos (London) argues that India’s space policy has shifted from prioritizing socioeconomic development to pursuing both national security and prestige. While it is party to all five UN space treaties that govern outer space and converges with the United States on many issues in the civil, commercial, and military domains of space, India is careful with regard to some norms. It favors, for example, bilateral initiatives over multilateral, and the inclusion of Global South countries in institutions that it believes to be dominated by the West. Konark Bhandari (New Delhi) argues that India’s stance on export controls is evolving. It has signed three of the four major international export control regimes, but it has to consistently contend with the cost of complying, particularly as the United States is increasingly and unilaterally imposing export control measures both inside and outside of those regimes. When it comes to export controls, India prefers trade agreements with select nations, prizes its strategic autonomy (which includes relations with Russia and China through institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the BRICS), and prioritizes its domestic development. Furthermore, given President Donald Trump’s focus on bilateral trade, the two countries’ differences will need to be worked out if future tech cooperation is to be realized.